P2P synthesis replaced ephedrine-based meth after 2009, but the schizophrenia crisis is better explained by sheer quantity than chemical differences.
Key Takeaways
DEA data shows P2P synthesis displaced ephedrine-based meth between 2009-2012, driven by the 2006-2008 US/Mexico pseudoephedrine bans.
Modern street meth tests at ~95% d-meth purity; l-meth peaked before 2011, predating schizophrenia reports, undermining the isomer hypothesis.
Lead-acetate contamination theory is also undermined: NTS synthesis (lower lead acetate use) dominated 2014-2018 with no corresponding drop in psychosis reports.
Seattle sewage data shows meth consumption doubled in 2017; daily heavy users tripled nationally between 2015-2019; overdose deaths hit 24,076 in 2020.
Meth prices collapsed from ~$15k/lb in 2014 to ~$1k-$5k/lb by 2019, with seizures and overdoses still rising, suggesting a pure supply shock.
Hacker News Comment Review
Commenters highlight that pseudoephedrine restrictions produced none of their intended effects: price fell, usage rose, supply shifted to Mexican P2P production without interruption.
One commenter noted a dead FiveThirtyEight link mid-article, flagging link rot as a recurring issue with older data journalism cited in drug policy pieces.
Notable Comments
@SV_BubbleTime: “how insanely ineffective banning pseudoephedrine over the counter was” – price dropped, overdoses and seizures surged, decongestant alternatives failed consumers on both counts.
