50+ countries met in Santa Marta, Colombia to advance a fossil fuel phase-out road map outside the stalled UN COP process.
Key Takeaways
COP28 agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” in 2023; COP29 Brazil road map was dropped from the final document for lack of consensus.
Colombia and Netherlands organized this “coalition of the willing” as the Iran war disrupts energy markets and raises reliance-risk salience.
China, US, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela are absent – the three largest emitters and key oil producers are not participating.
Outcomes will be a non-binding final report, not a treaty; Brazil’s COP30 presidency targets a global road map by the UN General Assembly in September.
CO2 from fossil fuels hit a record 38.1 billion tons in 2025, up 1.1%; current pledges point to 2.3-2.5C warming, well above the 1.5C Paris threshold.
Hacker News Comment Review
Commenters broadly agree that conference-as-success framing signals how low the bar has fallen, but some note that a smaller willing coalition can still build economies of scale and bypass Saudi/US obstruction.
Several commenters observe that the Iran war and Trump-era energy disruption are functioning as accidental catalysts for renewables adoption globally, even as they trigger short-term drilling responses.
A recurring technical point: sodium batteries and solar PV cost curves have removed most adoption barriers, and any country resisting will face uncompetitive energy costs – the transition is now economic, not just political.
Notable Comments
@mikece: Colombia runs 70%+ of electricity on hydropower with only ~65 of a feasible 200 TWh developed – an underappreciated reason it can credibly host these talks.
@ajross: “Absolutely hilarious to me that the biggest catalyst toward global attention to renewables… is Trump’s ridiculous adventure in the gulf.”
