California’s HSR estimate hit $231B, nearly 7x the $33B voters approved in 2008, with full LA-SF service now projected no earlier than 2040.
Key Takeaways
The original $33B covered the entire LA-SF Phase 1 line; the new $231B estimate covers the same scope.
Current funds are insufficient to complete even the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment, yet money is being shifted toward LA and SF endpoints simultaneously.
Authority CEO Ian Choudri is betting on private investors, arguing the commercial LA-SF corridor is the only route that attracts outside capital.
Former peer review group chair Lou Thompson declared the 2026 draft business plan has “reached a dead end,” citing escalating costs, delays, and unfunded gaps.
SF-Bakersfield service is targeted for 2033; full LA-SF for 2040, contingent on private financing that has not materialized.
Hacker News Comment Review
Broad consensus: the project will likely terminate at Merced-Bakersfield, becoming a white elephant with operating losses until Sacramento cancels it; almost no commenters believe private capital will appear at the required scale.
Core dispute is whether the overruns stem from unions, land acquisition, regulations, or deliberate political sabotage to discredit rail investment – but no public itemized cost breakdown exists to adjudicate any of these claims.
One commenter reframed the opportunity cost: $231B could subsidize over 400 years of free LA-SF air travel at current round-trip prices, putting the scale of misallocation in concrete terms.
Notable Comments
@polar8: the original $33B covered the full LA-SF route, not just the central valley stub – the true cost ratio is worse than headlines imply.
@atmavatar: no public cost breakdown has been released; every explanation for why it costs this much (unions, land owners, regulations) is unverified speculation.
